Using Track Variant & Speed Rating in Horse Racing.
Only the Daily Racing Form has this info, the racing program does not provide it.
These two numbers show how one horse compares with all the other horses that ran at that track that day. The Track Variant is calculated from adding all of the Speed Ratings of the winning horses that day and finding the mean average. Subtract this from the track record for the Track Variant. The Speed Rating is based out of 100, 100 being the track record. With 1 point equal to one-fifth of a second.
Example- If the Speed Rating is 90, then the Track Variant is 10. This means the average winning time was 2 seconds slower than the track record.
The Speed Rating works in conjunction with Track conditions (fast,muddy,etc.), surface (dirt, grass, etc,) and length of race (5 furlongs and up, or less than 5). It gives no consideration to jockeys, trainers or pedigree.
When using these two numbers to pick a horse, simply add the Speed Rating to the Track Variant. Use the highest number from the last three races. The higher the number the faster the horse. Note if two horses have the same number, the horse with the higher Track Variant has the more impressive time. So, horses with numbers below 100 are sub-par, above 100 is superior.
Once you have the Variant Speed number it is adjusted by the weight the horse is carrying. Look at the weight the horse is carrying for this race, look at weight carried from race Variant Speed number is selected. If equal, no adjustment. If higher than todays race, subtract one-half of a point per pound. If lower, add one-half point per pound.
One thing you do have to watch when a horse comes from a different track. Each and every race track has its own track record. The bigger the purse the better horses there are, the better horses the faster the track record. Hence, a 117 Variant Speed number at a lesser track equates to 107 at a better track and visa versa.
Using the Tomlinson Ratings.
The ratings are based on a horses breeding and are ranked from 0 to 480. They are useful when the 2-year-olds are racing since these horses have little or no past performance history. There are three areas rated; Wet, Distance, and Turf, for some reason Dirt is not rated.
Wet – A Tomlinson Rating of 320 or higher is a horse worth considering when a track is Sloppy or Muddy.
Distance – A Tomlison Rating of 320 is considered AVERAGE. The rating does not care what track SURFACE, dirt, turf, or synthetic. It shows the horses compatibility with the distance of the race TODAY.
Using Morning Line in Horse Racing.
The Morning Line odds are predictions from a handi-capper (or group of) hired for this purpose. It usually shows the race FAVORITES . It gives the horses a starting value. I never bet on a horse that is below the Morning Line. If I see a horse that started at 12 to 1 or under, and at post time the odds are at least double, I consider it to be a viable wager.
Using the Favorite From Previous Race.
While looking at the horses entered in a particular race, take note of their finishing odds; if there is an Astrix beside it, it means that it was the favorite in that race. If the horse did not win, (for many different reasons) that same horse should be at higher odds today; especially if that horse has dropped down in class. He or she is a horse to consider.
Using Fractional Times in Horse Racing.
The use of Fractional Times is becoming more popular, primarily because we now have this information compiled for us; unfortunately, they are not free. You can pay for them, but if you can do some simple math, the information is already there in your Daily Race Form. In the Past Performance of each horse, four fractional times are listed. Most people are looking for the fastest Closer in a route race. (any race of 1 mile or more is a route). The best horses will cover one furlong every 12 seconds, (furlong = 1-8th of a mile). Subtract the second last time from the finish time for the closing time.
The time poles for a sprint race – 1st time @ 2 furlongs, 2nd time @ 4 furlongs, 3rd time @ 5 furlongs, and finish time.
Time poles for a route race up to 1 1⁄16th – 1st time @ 2 furlongs, 2nd time @ 4 furlongs, 3rd time @ 6 furlongs, and time at finish.
Time poles for routes over 1 mile and a 1⁄16th – 1st time @ 4 furlongs, 2nd time @ 6 furlongs, 3rd time @ 8 furlongs, and time at finish.
this is the best horses, in a lesser race, like a $5,000. purse, the horses will be nowhere near these times.
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